In Chile, astronomers were intrigued by a mysterious point of light in the sky noted by a telescope in late December 2024. This peculiar light did not correspond to any known stars, comets, or asteroids cataloged in their all-sky database. The telescope, part of NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), detected this anomaly on December 27.
Further investigations revealed that the source of the light was an asteroid officially named 2024 YR4. Scientists determined that this asteroid’s orbit would bring it in close proximity to Earth in both 2028 and 2032. While the likelihood of an impact in 2028 has been ruled out, there is a slim chance that 2024 YR4 could collide with Earth on December 22, 2032.
NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies has estimated the probability of impact in 2032 to be 1.9 percent, while the European Space Agency (ESA) has put it at 1.8 percent. This translates to a 1-in-53 chance of the asteroid hitting Earth. These figures are slightly higher than previous estimates but are expected to decrease as more observations are made.
It is common for an asteroid’s impact probability to initially rise before dropping to zero after more data is gathered, as explained by ESA. The size of 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet, making it potentially capable of causing localized destruction near its impact site. For comparison, the asteroid associated with the Tunguska event in 1908 and the meteor over Chelyabinsk in 2013 were of similar sizes.
As scientists continue to track 2024 YR4’s trajectory, the probability of it colliding with Earth will likely fluctuate. Public awareness and monitoring of near-Earth objects play a crucial role in preparing for potential impact events. The ongoing research and observations on asteroids contribute to our understanding of these celestial bodies and their potential risks to our planet.