Los Angeles, California – A recent study analyzing sediment samples from the Pacific Ocean near California suggests that doubling atmospheric CO2 levels could result in a temperature increase of 7 to 14 degrees Celsius, exceeding previous predictions made by the IPCC. Researchers from NIOZ and the Universities of Utrecht and Bristol conducted this analysis, which provides valuable insights into the potential impacts of climate change on the planet.
Published in the journal Nature Communications, the study reveals that historical data extracted from a 45-year-old drill core from the Pacific Ocean floor indicate a strong relationship between CO2 levels and temperature. Lead author Caitlyn Witkowski expressed surprise at the significant temperature rise of up to 14 degrees Celsius, far surpassing the IPCC’s estimated range of 2.3 to 4.5 degrees Celsius.
The unique time series data collected from the drill core spans the past 15 million years, offering researchers a rare glimpse into the Earth’s climatic conditions over a vast time span. By using a method called the TEX86 method, scientists were able to derive past seawater temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels from the sediment samples, shedding light on the planet’s ancient climate history.
Professor Jaap Sinninghe Damsté explained that by analyzing specific substances found in the membrane of ancient microorganisms called archaea, they were able to estimate past temperatures accurately. Additionally, the researchers developed a novel approach to determine past atmospheric CO2 levels by examining the chemical composition of algae-derived substances like chlorophyll and cholesterol.
According to Damsté, the study suggests a significant decline in CO2 concentration from about 650 parts per million 15 million years ago to 280 parts per million just before the industrial revolution. When plotting the past 15 million years’ temperature and CO2 levels against each other, researchers found a strong correlation, indicating that CO2 concentration may have a more substantial impact on global temperatures than previously thought.
The findings of this research serve as a stark warning about the potential consequences of failing to reduce CO2 emissions and implement sustainable practices. Damsté emphasized the importance of considering the impact of rising CO2 levels on the planet’s temperature, urging for immediate action to address climate change.