Darvish’s Comeback: Is the Padres’ Ace Ready to Return Ahead of Schedule?

San Diego, California — The return of veteran pitcher Yu Darvish appears to be on the horizon as he made strides in his recovery by throwing 48 pitches over three innings in a recent simulated game at the Padres’ Spring Training complex. Darvish has been sidelined for the entire season thus far due to elbow inflammation that emerged during spring training in mid-March. However, Padres manager Mike Shildt indicated that the team might not require an extensive rehabilitation period for the right-hander before reintegrating him into the lineup.

While no definite timetable for his return has been established, Shildt mentioned that Darvish might rebuild his arm strength while facing major league hitters. This approach would circumvent a lengthy assignment in the minor leagues, relying instead on Darvish’s experience to effectively manage his workload on the mound. The Padres plan to monitor his pitch count and innings as they navigate a demanding schedule that includes 26 games in 27 days starting May 30.

Before any game appearances can commence, Darvish needs to continue making progress in his rehabilitation efforts. Shildt acknowledged the necessity for Darvish to reach an 80-pitch limit, suggesting that some minor league gameplay could still be part of his recovery process. At 38 years old, Darvish’s recent outing marked a significant milestone, as it was the first time this season he faced live hitters.

This marks the third consecutive season that Darvish has dealt with elbow difficulties. His most severe setback occurred last year when he suffered an olecranon stress reaction that prematurely ended his 2023 season in August. Complications from inflammation have plagued him over the last two years, compounded by a neck strain and two groin strains in 2024, along with personal matters that affected his playing time.

Given that Darvish pitched just 95 1/3 innings last season—between the regular season and playoffs—it may be surprising that the Padres are not considering a longer rehab assignment following his latest injury. His earlier spring training preparations allowed him to work on his mechanics before encountering elbow issues, and the organization is proceeding cautiously to avoid jeopardizing his health.

The Padres have kept Darvish designated on the 15-day injured list since Opening Day, opting against a shift to the 60-day IL. Such a move would limit his activation until late May. Nevertheless, the team retains flexibility with Darvish’s current status, potentially allowing for an earlier return, particularly helpful during the aforementioned busy schedule.

Despite Darvish’s absence, the 24-13 Padres have managed to hold their ground. Pitchers like Michael King and Nick Pivetta have excelled in their roles, although Dylan Cease has shown inconsistency, and Randy Vasquez’s solid 3.76 ERA is undermined by concerning strike data. The recent off-days have allowed the team to navigate a fifth starter dilemma, with Stephen Kolek slated to start against the Rockies in the interim.

While anticipating Darvish’s return, the Padres may need to temper expectations regarding his performance. Last season, he recorded a 4.56 ERA over 136 1/3 innings. However, his 3.91 SIERA suggests a more optimistic outlook, alongside a commendable walk rate of 6.6%. Though his strikeout numbers were modest, Darvish has previously demonstrated the ability to contribute meaningfully to a pitching rotation.

As he approaches a significant return, the Padres are not necessarily counting on Darvish to reclaim his ace status. Instead, they envision him serving as a reliable mid-rotation asset, hoping that he can sidestep further injuries to reinforce their pitching depth.