Moscow, Russia — A remnant of a Soviet-era space mission is on course to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere this week after lingering in orbit for over 50 years. The object, part of the Kosmos 482 spacecraft launched in 1972, was originally intended to explore Venus but never left low Earth orbit and has since fragmented into four separate pieces.
Among these remnants is believed to be a lander module, which is predicted to re-enter on or around May 10. NASA reports that although its descent will be uncontrolled, there is potential for some material to survive the fiery journey through the atmosphere. The uncertainties surrounding its re-entry include both the location of impact and the likelihood of survival, but experts agree that the vast majority of Earth is covered by oceans, reducing the potential for harm.
Stijn Lemmens, a senior analyst at the European Space Agency, pointed out the odds of the debris hitting a populated area are extremely low. “It’s much more likely that you would win the lottery than be hit by this space debris,” he said.
The lander, roughly one meter in diameter and weighing close to 500 kilograms, was engineered to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus, featuring a strong heat shield and a robust structure. This design contributes to experts’ optimism about its ability to survive re-entry, despite the deterioration of its parachute system over the decades.
Although the risk to individuals on the ground is considered minimal, the object could land anywhere within a latitude range of 51.7 degrees north and south, encompassing a large portion of the inhabited world. This geographic spread means the capsule could potentially make landfall anywhere from London to the southern tip of South America.
Incidents involving uncontrolled space debris re-entries are not uncommon. Lemmens noted that such events happen frequently, with larger spacecraft re-entering weekly and smaller objects daily. In notable cases, China’s Long March 5B rocket booster made a return over the Indian Ocean in 2022, while the Tiangong-1 space station largely incinerated over the Pacific in 2018 without significant consequences.
Kosmos 482 is currently under close scrutiny by various international space agencies. Analysts emphasize the importance of designing future spacecraft for safer re-entries, allowing for controlled descents that can lead to predictable landing zones. Doing so not only mitigates risks to populated areas but also plays a crucial role in managing the environmental impacts of space debris as humanity’s presence in orbit continues to grow.