Newport, Oregon — An underwater volcano located approximately 300 miles off the Oregon coast is showing signs of increasing activity, prompting scientists to warn that an eruption could occur before the year ends. Known as Axial Seamount, this geological structure lies nearly a mile beneath the Pacific Ocean and has been experiencing frequent seismic activity in recent weeks.
Researchers have observed more than 1,000 earthquakes per day around the seamount in late March and early April. Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University with over 30 years of experience studying Axial, noted that the seafloor is rising. “This swelling is a significant indicator of magma accumulating beneath the volcano, a known precursor to eruption,” he said.
Located at a tectonic boundary where the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates meet, Axial Seamount is part of a geological hotspot characterized by active volcanic processes. Continuous monitoring takes place through a network of seafloor sensors that track changes in the area. The persistent volcanic activity is attributed to the tectonic plates pulling apart, leading to buildup of pressure and magma flow.
Despite the heightened activity, scientists believe there is minimal risk to human life or coastal communities. “Even if you happened to be on a boat directly above the seamount during an eruption, you likely wouldn’t notice anything unusual,” Chadwick explained. The volcano’s remote location and considerable depth reduce the likelihood of affecting nearby marine traffic.
William Wilcock, a marine geophysicist from the University of Washington, emphasized the unpredictability of eruptions at Axial. “While I anticipate an eruption could happen later this year or perhaps early in 2026, it’s also possible it could occur tomorrow,” he commented, highlighting the challenges of volcanic forecasting.
Axial Seamount has a history of eruptions, with significant events recorded in 1998, 2011, and 2015. During its last eruption, vast lava flows spread over 25 miles of seafloor, forming deposits up to 450 feet thick. This geological activity creates a unique environment fostering diverse deep-sea ecosystems. Hydrothermal vents in the area emit mineral-rich fluids, supporting resilient communities that can recover quickly after volcanic events.
Researchers are keen to improve eruption prediction models using Axial Seamount as a natural laboratory, free from the human cost usually associated with terrestrial eruptions. Scott Nooner from the University of North Carolina Wilmington noted the ideal conditions for studying volcanic activity without risking human lives.
Interestingly, historical data shows a seasonal trend, with all three previous eruptions occurring between January and April, a period when the Earth is moving away from the sun. This may suggest that gravitational forces from the moon could play a role in influencing eruption timing, as ocean tides exert fluctuating pressure on the volcano.
Debbie Kelley, director of the Regional Cabled Array observatory, expressed excitement about the potential of livestreaming the next eruption, marking a milestone in the field of underwater volcanology. Though such an eruption may remain hidden from coastal observers, scientists believe it will provide invaluable insights into the geological processes shaping the Earth from below.