Miami, Florida – After a period of relative calm in the Atlantic, meteorologists warn that hurricane season may be gearing up for another bout of activity. A tropical weather disturbance near the Lesser Antilles is showing signs of potential development, which could pose a threat to several regions, including the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern United States, particularly Florida.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the disturbance currently has a 50 percent chance of evolving into a tropical depression or storm. If it does intensify, it would be named “Debby,” adding to the list of Atlantic storms for 2024. While computer models suggest the system may stay weak initially, some indicate that it might organize rapidly once it moves closer to the United States.
This disturbance could mark the beginning of a period of heightened storm activity in the Atlantic for the 2024 hurricane season. Experts predict a particularly active season, with Colorado State University researchers estimating a total of 25 named storms, including those that have already formed. This season has already seen the formation of Beryl, which made history as the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record before hitting Houston on July 8.
As the system continues to progress, its potential for strengthening remains uncertain. Factors such as strong upper-level winds and dry air may hinder its development in the short term. However, as it moves towards the Caribbean, there is a possibility that conditions will become more favorable for growth by the end of the week.
The system’s trajectory remains uncertain, with various possibilities for its path. The Bermuda high, a large pressure system in the central Atlantic, will influence its movement, eventually steering it westward and potentially northward. The exact timing and location of any northward turn are challenging to predict at this stage.
Areas such as the Bahamas, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Florida, and the Carolinas need to closely monitor the progress of this system, as it could pose a threat if it manages to strengthen. While there are currently no other areas of concern in the tropics, experts warn that the Atlantic may become more active in mid-August due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a weather pattern that supports rising air over the tropical Atlantic.