Orlando, Florida – A recent study suggests that measles could reemerge as an endemic disease in the United States if childhood vaccination rates continue to decline. The study predicts a potential 51 million measles cases over a 25-year period if immunization levels drop, posing a significant threat to public health.
Measles, once eradicated in the US in 2000 due to effective vaccination efforts, has been making a comeback in recent years. With nearly 900 reported cases in the country this year alone, more than half of all states have been affected by the outbreak, particularly in areas with large unvaccinated populations.
The study, published in the JAMA journal, analyzes the potential spread of measles over the next 25 years based on varying vaccination levels from 2004 to 2023. Current estimates suggest that measles vaccination coverage across different states ranges from 87.7% to 95.6%.
Health experts warn that outbreaks can only be prevented if at least 95% of a particular community has received two doses of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. However, vaccination rates have been declining, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to a drop to 92.7% for kindergartners in the 2023-24 school year.
If vaccination rates continue to decrease, the study predicts that measles could become endemic in the US within the next 25 years. In a scenario where vaccination rates decline by 10%, the country could see over 11 million measles cases during that period.
Conversely, if there is a 5% increase in MMR vaccine uptake, the study projects only 5,800 measles cases over the same 25-year timeframe. The research also indicates that other vaccine-preventable diseases may not become endemic in the US at current vaccination levels.
While the study does not account for variations in vaccination rates between different communities, experts emphasize the importance of maintaining high coverage to prevent the resurgence of infectious diseases in the country. The potential impact of continuous measles outbreaks on the healthcare system underscores the urgency for action in promoting vaccination to ensure public health safety.