Kyiv, Ukraine — Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine, which began just weeks ago, is quickly losing momentum, according to military experts. Following months of mobilizing troops and refining tactical strategies, Moscow initially saw its forces make swift advances, particularly in the eastern Donetsk region. However, this early enthusiasm has dissipated, leading analysts to suggest that the offensive is turning into a prolonged struggle rather than a decisive campaign.
The offensive commenced in May, and while Russian troops exhibited notable progress in the beginning, they are now encountering significant resistance. “The Russian military lacks the capacity to initiate any significant new operations, making this summer campaign merely an extension of their previous efforts,” said Angelica Evans, a Russia expert with the Institute for the Study of War.
In the northern Sumy region, Ukrainian forces have successfully halted Russian advances, even managing to reclaim some territory. “As of this week, the Russian offensive in the Sumy border area has been completely stalled, and we have stabilized the front line,” said Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top military commander. This development closely mirrors earlier efforts in Kharkiv, where similar ambitions ended without major gains for Russian forces.
To further bolster regional defenses, Ukraine has formed a specialized defense unit under Brig. Gen. Oleh Apostol. This unit focuses on enhancing fortifications, expanding engineering defenses, and preparing local populations for potential assaults. Meanwhile, Russia continues to grapple with challenges in Donetsk, where attempts to seize strategic towns like Kostiantynivka are faltering despite a numerical advantage.
Experts attribute these difficulties to the inadequately trained Russian troops and limitations in their logistical support. “They struggle to maintain their operational pressure due to a depletion of critical military resources, particularly in artillery and armored vehicles,” noted Nick Reynolds from the Royal United Services Institute. Although combat persists in regions like Pokrovsk and Toretsk, Russia has not secured control over a significant city in months.
The consequences of spreading forces too thinly across multiple fronts, including emerging offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk, pose a dire risk for Moscow. Defense analyst Michael Clarke remarked on Russia’s approach: “They celebrate small territorial gains, but these victories lack strategic importance.”
In recent weeks, Russia has intensified missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities, resulting in deadly attacks in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa. However, analysts argue that Russia’s overarching strategy—aimed more at exhausting Ukrainian resistance than achieving rapid territorial conquests—is failing. “The Russians appear resigned to a drawn-out conflict, mistakenly believing that this strategy will yield results,” Reynolds commented.
Despite some minor successes, such as the acquisition of a small lithium deposit in Donetsk, the overall campaign has yet to deliver substantial victories for Russia. The ongoing conflict reflects a complex web of challenges for Russian forces, as they struggle to adapt and overcome the resilient resistance of Ukraine’s military.