Delft, Netherlands — A relic from the Cold War era is expected to make an uncontrolled descent back to Earth in the coming days. The spacecraft, known as Kosmos 482, was intended for a Venus exploration mission in the 1970s but never made it beyond Earth’s atmosphere due to a launch failure. Now, after more than five decades in orbit, its fate remains uncertain.
Space debris-tracking specialists are closely monitoring the situation, indicating that the spacecraft could re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around May 10. Dutch researcher Marco Langbroek, who studies orbital debris, estimates that the half-ton craft could crash at speeds reaching 150 mph if it remains intact during re-entry.
While the potential for risk exists, experts believe the concerns may be overstated. “The danger posed by the spacecraft is comparable to that of random meteorite falls, which occur several times a year,” Langbroek stated in an email. He further noted that the likelihood of it striking a person or property remains low, even if complete safety cannot be guaranteed.
Kosmos 482 was launched in 1972 as part of the Soviet Union’s ambitious program to explore Venus. After a malfunction during its launch, it never escaped Earth’s orbit, and most of its components re-entered the atmosphere within a decade. Nevertheless, the landing capsule—approximately three feet in diameter—has reportedly maintained a highly elliptical orbit for over 53 years and is gradually descending.
The spacecraft’s construction may afford it some resilience during re-entry. Designed to endure the harsh atmospheric conditions of Venus, it has a chance of surviving its descent through Earth’s atmosphere. However, experts cast doubts on the functionality of its parachute system after such a prolonged period in orbit. Furthermore, the heat shield that protects it during re-entry may have degraded over time.
Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, shared insights on the potential outcomes of the re-entry. He suggested that if the heat shield fails, the spacecraft could disintegrate and burn up upon descent. Conversely, should the heat shield remain intact, it could lead to a more substantial object crashing to Earth. “A half-ton metal object falling from the sky is certainly a concern,” he noted.
The potential landing area for Kosmos 482 spans a wide corridor between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, reaching from as far north as London, Canada, down to the southernmost tip of South America. Given that the majority of the Earth’s surface is covered by water, Langbroek believes it is likely the spacecraft will ultimately land in an ocean.
This incident is not isolated; past uncontrolled re-entries have drawn similar attention. For instance, in 2022, a Chinese rocket made an uncontrolled return to Earth, and the Tiangong-1 space station re-entered the atmosphere in 2018. These occurrences highlight the ongoing challenges and risks associated with space debris management.
As experts monitor Kosmos 482, the world holds its breath, awaiting the outcome of a historical spacecraft’s return to Earth after an unexpected 53-year odyssey through space.