Moscow, Russia — A decades-old Soviet spacecraft, originally aimed at exploring Venus, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and fall to the surface either late Friday night or early Saturday morning. This object, known as Cosmos 482, has been adrift in Earth’s orbit since its launch in March 1972, when it failed to complete its intended journey to the second planet from the sun.
Since its launch, Cosmos 482 has traversed Earth’s orbit as atmospheric drag gradually pulled it closer to our planet. Now, after many years of monitoring by astronomers and space traffic analysts, its descent trajectory has become clearer. Various institutions, including the European Space Agency and the Aerospace Corporation in the United States, estimate that the spacecraft will re-enter between 10 p.m. and 6:30 a.m. ET.
The precise timing and location of the re-entry remain uncertain due to various factors, including dynamic space weather conditions that affect orbital paths. However, experts believe that this piece of space debris is unlikely to cause harm on the ground. Marlon Sorge, a specialist in space debris, remarked that the spacecraft was engineered to survive its return to Venus, increasing the likelihood it could return intact to Earth without disintegrating upon re-entry.
Cosmos 482, with a cylindrical shape measuring approximately three feet in diameter, poses far less risk than many other abandoned space objects. Unlike defunct rocket parts that often break apart during re-entry at extreme speeds, this craft’s robust heat shield could protect it from the intense pressures and temperatures it will encounter. Historically, Russian space exploration has made significant advancements, including efforts made during the Cold War era to gather information about Venus.
Among the notable missions, the Venera program sent several probes to the planet between the 1970s and 1980s, successfully transmitting data back to Earth. Cosmos 482, however, failed to reach its destination, leading experts to trace its lineage to its intended mission.
While it is more probable that Cosmos 482 will land in an ocean, there is still a chance it could impact land. The spacecraft’s trajectory indicates a potential landing zone covering various regions worldwide, including parts of Africa, South America, Australia, the U.S., and parts of Europe and Asia. Marco Langbroek, a space traffic analyst, cautions that onlookers should maintain a safe distance in the event of a ground impact. The spacecraft could leak hazardous materials, and authorities should be notified if it lands nearby.
Legally, Cosmos 482 remains the responsibility of Russia, as outlined in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which dictates that the nation launching a spacecraft retains ownership and accountability, no matter how much time has passed. While incidents of falling space debris are not uncommon, the majority disintegrate upon re-entry.
The ongoing expansion of space exploration and satellite launches by private companies like SpaceX has heightened concerns in the space traffic community. Increased activity raises the stakes for potential collisions in orbit and uncontrolled re-entries. Parker Wishik from the Aerospace Corporation notes that despite improved safety standards since the 20th century, the risks associated with falling debris serve as a stark reminder of the long-term implications of modern space endeavors.
As this historical spacecraft prepares to descend, it emphasizes the enduring legacy and unpredictability of human ventures beyond our planet.