In New York City, New York, Presidential election prediction markets are showing a shift in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump as Election Day approaches. While polls indicate a close race between the two candidates, recent data from betting sites reveals a noteworthy trend in Harris’ favor.
PredictIt, one of the betting platforms, currently places a 51% chance of a Harris victory on Tuesday, marking the first time she has surpassed Trump’s odds since October 9th. On other betting markets, however, Trump still maintains the lead, with higher odds on sites like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Smarkets.
In recent days, Harris has been able to regain some ground on implied odds for the election, while Trump’s odds have seen a slight decline. This shift in betting odds has caught the attention of experts and analysts, who are closely monitoring the developments as Election Day draws near.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll-based model gives Harris a 49% chance of winning, just below Trump’s 50%. Similarly, The Economist predicts a 52%-48% edge for Harris over Trump in election simulations.
As the election betting market gains popularity, some experts view it as an indicator of the election outcome. However, there are differing opinions on the accuracy of these predictions, with some suggesting that individual biases may influence the odds. Additionally, new platforms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers have entered the election betting space, while established sites like Kalshi have been granted federal approval to allow users to bet on U.S. elections.
Overall, the betting trends surrounding the Harris-Trump race continue to fluctuate, creating excitement and anticipation as Americans await the final results of the presidential election.