Los Angeles, California — A significant decline in cargo shipments to the United States’ major ports signals growing economic uncertainty, attributed largely to President Donald Trump’s controversial trade policies. Recent data indicates that the number of vessels set to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles has dropped nearly 30% compared to the same week last year.
Analysis from Port Optimizer forecasts an 11% decrease in container arrivals this week alone. Meanwhile, bookings for shipments from China to the U.S. plummeted by 45% by mid-April, according to data gathered by Vizion. Economists are expressing concern that these trends might indicate a looming recession for the world’s largest economy, with Trump’s tariffs driving up prices and inhibiting global trade.
The U.S. government has levied substantial tariffs on imports, including a staggering 145% on Chinese goods and an overarching 10% tax on other countries, although some exceptions apply. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at the possibility of negotiating a resolution with China after recent discussions at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings.
Apollo Global Management, a prominent private equity firm, reported a sharp decline in new business orders since Trump’s announcement of his trade strategy on April 2. Chief economist Torsten Sløk noted that the slowdown in orders and investment plans, coupled with rising inventories, is shifting corporate expectations downward. Consumer confidence has also dipped, affecting spending behaviors and international tourism.
Executives from large U.S. retailers, such as Walmart and Target, have raised alarms about potential disruptions in supply chains and rising prices resulting from the administration’s tariffs. They warn that these challenges could lead to reduced inventory on store shelves.
Shipping data reflects a troubling trend, with decreases expected to escalate in the coming months as companies adjust their import strategies in response to tariffs. Reactions in the shipping industry suggest that shipping authorities foresee a stark decline in containers arriving from China. Notably, the San Pedro Bay ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach account for nearly one-third of U.S. container traffic and serve as vital entry points for imports including electronics and automobiles.
With the journey of goods from China taking 20 to 40 days, the impacts on trucking and distribution in the U.S. economy could become evident by mid-summer, potentially leading to layoffs and a further deterioration of supply chains. Some analysts warn that this series of events could create conditions ripe for recession.
Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, likened the current trade fallout to the economic disruptions seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, asserting that uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies is driving this chaos. Unlike a health crisis, however, there is no immediate solution on the horizon. The impacts of these trade tensions may be felt for months, leaving businesses and consumers navigating an increasingly unpredictable landscape.