New York, USA – The launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin back in January of 2025 made headlines, but now faces uncertain times. Recently, the market saw a significant token unlock event on April 18th, releasing 40 million TRUMP tokens worth around $300 million. This event represents 20% of the current circulating supply and 4% of the total supply that is expected to reach 1 billion tokens in the next three years.
Despite the structural challenges faced by TRUMP, including an 88% price drop from its all-time high, questions arise about whether this token unlock is a high-risk liquidity event or a strategic move in a volatile market. With 200 million tokens currently in circulation and the remaining set to be progressively unlocked, there may be downward pressure on the price as new tokens enter the market and holders decide to sell.
Despite these inflationary effects and supply-side pressure, TRUMP has shown resilience in its fundamentals. Short-Term Holders (STHs) have continued to hold positions, suggesting optimism and a reluctance to realize losses. While the recent price correction of 88% could lead to volatility, the strong tokenomics of TRUMP position it as a bullish bet.
Following the token unlock, TRUMP experienced an 8% intraday rally and surpassed the $8 psychological level with a significant increase in trading volume. This positive response indicates bullish sentiment among market participants who may have anticipated the dilution effect. However, the sustainability of this rally remains uncertain, with questions about whether it is a structural reversal or a temporary bounce in a downtrend.
Holder conviction around the $7 support level has prevented a breakdown in TRUMP, but weak capital inflows are limiting its breakout potential. Network growth metrics show a sharp decline in new wallet addresses, indicating stagnation in activity. Without renewed inflows or increased network activity, TRUMP remains vulnerable to prolonged consolidation following its recent rally.
In conclusion, TRUMP’s journey post-token unlock reflects a reflexive bounce driven by speculation. The asset’s future performance hinges on renewed interest and activity, highlighting the importance of monitoring key levels and network metrics in the coming days.