Nairobi, Kenya — The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is facing significant operational disruptions following an announcement from the Trump administration to drastically scale back its programs. With funding cuts affecting 83% of initiatives earlier this year, critics are raising alarms about the implications for global health.
According to a study published in The Lancet, USAID’s efforts over the past two decades have been credited with saving more than 90 million lives worldwide. Researchers have warned that if current funding reductions persist through 2030, an estimated 14 million individuals, many of whom are vulnerable, could sadly lose their lives.
James Macinko, a health policy expert at UCLA and a co-author of the study, underscored the value of USAID to taxpayers, noting that the average American contributes approximately 18 cents a day to its funding. “That small investment has translated to saving millions of lives globally,” he stated. Since its establishment in 1961, USAID has facilitated numerous programs, ranging from nutritional assistance to children in Haiti to critical HIV medication distribution in sub-Saharan Africa.
Macinko’s team analyzed demographic and mortality data from 133 countries that benefited from U.S. aid between 2001 and 2021. By contrasting death rates among nations receiving varying levels of support, the research aimed to quantify the agency’s impact on mortality rates.
The findings revealed that countries receiving higher levels of aid experienced a 15% overall reduction in deaths across all age groups, with rates for children under five improving even further at 32%. “Seeing that 15% figure translate into a saved life count was surprising,” Macinko remarked.
The study specifically highlighted that USAID funding significantly reduced mortality from diseases such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, and neglected tropical diseases. Although smaller, beneficial effects were also observed in areas such as maternal health and respiratory infections.
Amid impending cuts, researchers project a stark future if these reductions become permanent. Their estimates suggest anywhere from 8 to 19 million lives could be lost, including 4.5 million children by 2030. “Even the most conservative predictions show a grave human cost,” Macinko emphasized.
A State Department spokesperson rebuffed the study’s findings, arguing that assumptions about the agency’s future funding are flawed and asserting that essential life-saving work would continue, albeit more efficiently.
Brooke Nichols, an infectious disease modeler at Boston University, noted the study’s comprehensive approach sheds light on USAID’s extensive reach and effectiveness, even amid challenges in data accuracy in many countries. She commended the initiative, saying it underscores the potential gains from coordinated international assistance.
As USAID grapples with its future amid profound budgetary constraints, the analysis serves as a stark reminder of the potential human cost associated with policy shifts in foreign aid. The implications of these funding decisions could transform lives, making it vital for stakeholders to consider the broader humanitarian impact.