Leiden, Netherlands — A spacecraft launched more than five decades ago is on a course for an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere within the next few weeks. Originally designed for a mission to Venus, the vessel has remained in low Earth orbit since it failed to achieve its intended trajectory.
The spacecraft, known as Kosmos 482, was launched on March 31, 1972, from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. The Soviet mission aimed to explore Venus but encountered a malfunction that hampered its velocity, leaving it trapped in an elliptical orbit around Earth rather than heading toward the distant planet. The spacecraft initially fragmented into multiple pieces shortly after launch, with some debris crashing down over Ashburton, New Zealand, a mere two days later.
According to satellite tracker Marco Langbroek, the reentry is expected to occur around May 10. As the date approaches, predictions may become clearer. “The timing is uncertain because current solar activity is causing Earth’s atmosphere to heat and expand, affecting the drag on orbital objects,” Langbroek noted in a recent blog. This atmospheric alteration can lead to unpredictable reentry timings.
Rich in history and designed to withstand extreme conditions, the lander module may possess the resilience needed to survive its descent through Earth’s atmosphere. Langbroek explained that the risks posed by the reentry are relatively low, although not nonexistent. He likened the potential impact to that of a falling meteorite, indicating that while it is unlikely to strike a populated area, the possibility should not be dismissed.
Following its launch, Kosmos 482 comprised a carrier bus and a lander probe, collectively weighing more than 1,000 pounds. Portions of the spacecraft remain in a stable, albeit high, orbit, further complicating efforts to ascertain where the debris will eventually land. The most probable drop zone would likely be remote ocean areas, where the likelihood of human contact is minimal.
Despite the spacecraft’s failure to complete its intended mission, the unfolding scenario serves as a reminder of the complexities and unpredictabilities of space exploration. Each uncontrolled reentry, even of defunct spacecraft, underscores ongoing challenges in tracking and predicting the behavior of various objects orbiting Earth.
As the world watches, the decades-old relic from the Soviet space program prepares for its final descent, sparking both scientific interest and public curiosity about the risks and mysteries that space holds.