Johannesburg, South Africa – Senior members of the African National Congress in South Africa are currently engaged in discussions regarding the future of President Cyril Ramaphosa and potential coalition partners following the disappointing results of the recent general election. With over 90% of the votes counted, the ANC’s performance fell several percentage points below expectations, jeopardizing its majority rule since the end of apartheid in 1994.
The poor showing in the election has created challenges for the ANC in finding a suitable coalition partner to maintain its governance. This outcome has also raised doubts about President Ramaphosa’s leadership capabilities, as he has overseen the party’s worst election performance since assuming office six years ago.
Prominent party member Mavuso Msimang has expressed concerns about President Ramaphosa’s ability to continue leading the ANC. With the ANC’s vote tally hovering around 40%, some are suggesting a change in leadership. The possibility of forming a coalition with the market-oriented Democratic Alliance, which currently holds second place in the polls, is being considered if Ramaphosa remains in power.
However, if Ramaphosa were to step down, there are discussions about a potential partnership with the recently formed Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK), led by Jacob Zuma. Despite challenges within the party, some believe that certainty in governance can be achieved through an ANC-DA alliance, although certain members oppose such an alliance due to their perceptions of the DA.
The ANC’s unexpected results have made it increasingly difficult for the party to form a functional coalition without aligning with either the DA or the MK, as most smaller parties did not secure significant votes. Deputy President Paul Mashatile, seen as a potential successor to Ramaphosa, may lean towards partnering with the MK and possibly the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, in an effort to preserve ANC’s position in the political landscape.
Gwede Mantashe, ANC Chair, has dismissed suggestions of removing Ramaphosa during the election period, emphasizing the need for unity within the party. Although there are concerns about Ramaphosa’s future, some believe that he must act quickly to secure a deal with the DA to prevent internal party conflicts.
As the ANC faces increased pressure from its losses, political analysts anticipate heightened challenges for Ramaphosa to retain leadership. With speculation about his potential removal lingering, Ramaphosa will need to utilize his negotiating skills to navigate the party’s internal dynamics and secure his position.