Miami, Florida – The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring two areas this week for potential tropical development, one of which is located off the coast of Florida. Despite current low odds for formation, forecasters are keeping a close eye on the situation.
One area of concern is expected to develop by midweek northeast of the central Bahamas. Although the chances of a tropical depression forming in the next 48 hours are near zero, the center has placed the odds at 30% over the next seven days. Senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven noted that environmental conditions may be conducive for development as the system moves westward or west-northwestward.
Another area being monitored is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where disturbed weather has formed over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Forecasters predict that a broad area of low pressure will form in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days, with a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 70% chance over the next seven days.
Beven emphasized the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding across southern Mexico and Central America, regardless of whether the systems develop into tropical depressions. While forecasts point towards a potentially historic hurricane season in terms of storm formation, there may be a temporary reprieve. The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch mentioned the arrival of Saharan dust, which is known to suppress shower and thunderstorm activity.
According to the social media post from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch, Saharan dust outbreaks typically peak from late June to early August and diminish by mid-August. This natural phenomenon could provide a brief period of reduced storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean region. Residents are advised to stay informed and prepared for any developments in the ongoing hurricane season.