Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, finds itself in a prolonged and intense conflict with Russia as the war in Ukraine reaches its second year. The battle lines have remained largely stagnant, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces engaged in frequent missile strikes, drone attacks, and shelling in familiar territories. The ongoing conflict has seen a significant increase in battle events, with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project documenting 9,700 instances of armed clashes or territorial changes in the second year of the war, representing a 32 percent rise from the first year.
Ukraine has experienced some territorial gains, with 22 captured by Ukraine and 31 by Russia in the past year, a notable decrease from the 600 territorial changes witnessed in the initial year of the conflict. As the war enters its second anniversary, the focus has shifted to a battle of attrition, with Kyiv facing potential shortages of Western-provided ammunition as aid efforts stall.
The conflict landscape has evolved into a strategic stalemate, prompting concerns about the depletion of resources and the need for reinforcements. Max Bergmann, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, highlights the implications of dwindling artillery supplies and the subsequent reliance on increased troop deployment, which raises the risk of casualties on the front lines.
Russia’s military strategy has included the construction of formidable fortifications along the front line, such as razor wire and trenches, fortifying their positions and hindering Ukrainian advancements during their summer counteroffensive. Looking ahead to the third year of the war, Ukraine aims to bolster its infantry and replenish ammunition reserves in preparation for a potential offensive in 2025, although diminishing Western support poses challenges.
Amidst these developments, Moscow has managed to secure incremental gains, seizing the city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine in a recent military maneuver. The shifting dynamics of the conflict indicate a shift in Russia’s approach towards pushing for further territorial expansion, marking a notable progression in their military operations.
The contrasting strategies employed by Ukraine and Russia reflect a narrative of adaptation and resilience in the face of an enduring and complex conflict. While Ukraine navigates the challenges of resource scarcity and strategic planning, Russia continues to capitalize on tactical opportunities to consolidate its position and advance its agenda. As the war enters a critical phase, the stakes are high for both sides, with implications extending beyond the battlegrounds to geopolitical dimensions that shape the future of the region.