Washington, D.C. – Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Robert Redfield warned that the next pandemic could stem from bird flu. Concerns have been raised recently as the World Health Organization reported the first human death from bird flu in Mexico, along with the discovery of the virus in cattle across the United States.
Redfield expressed his belief that a bird flu pandemic is highly likely, emphasizing the potential for a significantly higher mortality rate compared to Covid-19. While Covid-19 had a mortality rate of 0.6 percent, Redfield estimated that the mortality rate for bird flu could range between 25 to 50 percent.
The CDC found its third case of a person diagnosed with bird flu in late May, unrelated to previous cases and mainly affecting farmworkers. Symptoms included coughing and pink eye, but there is currently no evidence suggesting human-to-human transmission of the virus.
Researchers have identified specific changes required for bird flu to adapt and spread to humans efficiently, similar to the mechanism seen in Covid-19. Redfield stressed the importance of monitoring the situation closely, as the virus has been detected in numerous cattle herds across the states.
With over 40 affected cattle herds, the CDC is actively monitoring wastewater treatment sites to track the virus’s presence while assuring the public that the current risk remains low. While the virus can potentially evolve through animal vectors like pigs, Redfield expressed concerns about the risk of intentional manipulation in a laboratory setting.
Redfield highlighted the risk posed by scientific publications detailing the exact amino acid changes necessary to enhance bird flu infectivity in humans. The potential ease of access to this information raises concerns about biosecurity and the deliberate creation of a highly infectious strain.