Washington, D.C. – An accomplished history professor at American University has garnered attention for his highly successful formula in predicting U.S. presidential elections since 1984. Allan Lichtman, with over five decades of teaching experience, utilizes a system known as the “13 keys” to the White House to forecast election outcomes.
Lichtman recently shared his forecast for the 2024 presidential election, indicating that President Joe Biden is currently on track for victory. According to Lichtman, Biden has already secured two critical keys – the incumbency key and the contest key – as he faced no significant competition within his party for the nomination.
In an interview with the Guardian, Lichtman explained the significance of these early indicators, stating that for Biden to lose, six more keys out of the 13 would need to turn against him. Lichtman plans to make his final prediction in August, keen on observing the unfolding dynamics leading up to the election.
The remaining keys in Lichtman’s model are centered on various factors such as the presence of major scandals, social unrest during the incumbent’s term, military successes or failures, and the challenger’s charisma or national hero status. Lichtman’s prediction accuracy has been remarkably high, with his only misstep occurring in 2000 when he foresaw Al Gore defeating George W. Bush.
Despite his impressive track record, Lichtman acknowledges that unforeseen events could potentially impact the election outcome. He highlighted the ongoing legal troubles faced by former President Donald Trump, emphasizing the potential influence of these developments on the election landscape.
A recent national poll by CNN showing Trump leading Biden by 6 percentage points has sparked further discussion about the upcoming election. While Lichtman’s predictions offer valuable insights, the volatility of American politics ensures that the final outcome remains uncertain until Election Day.