Russian Forces Capture Ukraine’s Avdiivka – Kremlin Raises Flag on Key Industry – What’s Next?

KYIV, Ukraine – Russian forces have declared full control over the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, according to a statement from Russia’s Defense Ministry on Saturday.

This announcement comes after a four-month battle between Ukrainian defenders and Russian forces. Ukrainian troops are facing a deteriorating situation with constant shelling, airstrikes, and assaults from Russian soldiers, which has left the city a bombed-out shell of its former self.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported that Russian forces were working to clear the final resistance pockets at the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant. Social media videos show soldiers raising the Russian flag over one of the plant’s buildings.

A critical aspect of this development is the timing, as Russia seeks a morale boost ahead of the second anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the upcoming presidential election in March.

In response to the escalating situation, Ukrainian military chief Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi made the decision to withdraw troops from the city in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen. The troops are now moving to “more favorable lines.”

The withdrawal came a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Western Europe, where he sought to secure continued military support from Ukraine’s Western allies.

Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka are facing intense pressure from an overwhelming Russian assault, with reports indicating that the situation could soon become critical. Russian warplanes have been dropping about 60 bombs a day and launching assaults with armor and infantry. The city of Avdiivka, once home to a population of 31,000, now lies in ruins with fewer than 1,000 people remaining.

This conflict has become part of the larger geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West, with the United States being Ukraine’s most significant supporter. However, political disagreements among American lawmakers have resulted in stalled military aid of about $60 billion for Kyiv.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, has assessed the potential capture of Avdiivka by Russian forces, pointing out that it would be more of a symbolic win for the Kremlin and would not bring significant changes to the front line that has barely budged in recent months.

As the conflict continues to unfold, the situation in Avdiivka remains critical and poses a significant challenge for Ukraine as it navigates this ongoing crisis.