Democrats face an uphill battle this fall as they seek to hold onto their slim Senate majority. With 22 incumbent seats to defend, many in Republican-leaning states, as well as the loss of Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Democrats are struggling with the odds. West Virginia, one of the most Republican states in the nation, presents a significant challenge for Democrats as they see little hope of retaining the seat without Manchin. Their best but unlikely hope rests on picking up a seat in either Texas or Florida, where Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are running for reelection.
The current landscape shows 48 Democrats, plus three independents who caucus with them, giving them a 51-49 majority. With the upcoming Election Day approaching, the earliest fundraising numbers for the year provide insights into where the Senate map stands.
In Montana, Senator Jon Tester is seeking reelection for a fourth term in a state where President Biden’s chances of winning in the general election are not high. Although Trump won the state in 2020 by a significant margin, Tester remains popular with approval ratings around 61%. Last quarter, Tester outperformed his GOP opponent Tim Sheehy, but also spent more than he raised.
In Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown is defending his seat in a swing state that trended Republican in the 2020 election. Despite the potential challenge posed by Republicans, Brown managed to outraise all three of his potential opponents in the last quarter, finishing the year with $14.6 million cash on hand.
Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema faces uncertainty as she has not yet declared her intention to run for reelection. If she decides to run, she will face tough competition from both Democratic and Republican candidates in a state that historically votes for Republican candidates.
The upcoming Senate race in Pennsylvania will likely pit third-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey against Republican businessman Dave McCormick, who recently outraised Casey by about $2 million in the last quarter.
In Michigan, Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin is running for the Senate seat being vacated by Senator Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin’s impressive fundraising numbers set her apart from the crowded field of Republican candidates.
With the odds stacked against them, Democrats are vying for longshot victories in Texas and Florida. In Florida, Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will face two-term Senator Rick Scott. Meanwhile, in Texas, Democratic Representative Colin Allred, the likely challenger to Senator Ted Cruz, outraised Cruz by a significant margin.
As the 2024 Senate races heat up across the country, both Democrats and Republicans are gearing up for what promises to be a highly competitive and closely watched election season.