Los Angeles — The summer box office is heating up as James Gunn’s highly anticipated Superman faces stiff competition from other franchises attempting to reclaim audience attention. Paramount Animation’s new Smurfs film, featuring Rihanna as Smurfette, and Sony’s reboot of the late-’90s horror flick, I Know What You Did Last Summer, are set to launch, but analysts predict an uphill battle against established blockbusters.
Superman is expected to experience a significant drop in ticket sales, projected to earn around $60 million in its second weekend, a decline of approximately 52%. Initial strong performances on Monday and Tuesday helped bolster its five-day total to $155 million. Among superhero movies released in July, Superman ranks sixth for Tuesday openings, trailing behind other widely successful titles. The film continues to dominate premium large format (PLF) and IMAX screens this weekend, indicating strong ongoing interest.
In contrast, Paramount’s Smurfs reboot, which marks a new chapter for the beloved franchise, could struggle with an opening between $9 million and $12 million at approximately 3,300 theaters, lacking any Thursday-night previews. With women under 25 as its primary audience, this release faces tough comparisons to previous animated hits. The original Smurfs film opened to $35.6 million in 2011, capitalizing on a lack of competition during the pre-streaming era. In stark contrast, the latest entry seems set for a muted theatrical reception.
Despite its strong initial performance in previous installments, the Smurfs franchise has seen diminishing box office returns. The films, which grossed over $1.1 billion between 2011 and 2017, now aim to regain traction, particularly in key international markets. The film has already debuted in Australia and is set to open in multiple countries across Europe and Latin America this week.
Meanwhile, Sony’s revival of I Know What You Did Last Summer arrives during a season packed with horror films, aiming for an opening of $13 million to $17 million across 3,100 theaters. The original film starred notable actors such as Jennifer Love Hewitt and Freddie Prinze Jr., generating considerable revenue in its time, but the nostalgia factor may not translate into ticket sales for the new version. With a budget of $18 million, it faces the challenge of a crowded market filled with familiar horror offerings.
Critics have greeted both the Smurfs and I Know What You Did Last Summer with skepticism, evident in their low Rotten Tomatoes scores. As audiences look for fresh content, the pressure mounts on these reboots to prove they can stand alongside more established franchises.
Additionally, A24’s Eddington, directed by Ari Aster, is set to hit theaters with expectations of low earnings. The film, which features stars like Pedro Pascal and Joaquin Phoenix, explores divisive themes against the backdrop of the pandemic. This quirky Western comedy could manage to scrape together a modest sum under $5 million, competing against other art-house offerings that resonate with niche audiences.
As the box office landscape continues to evolve, the upcoming weekends will reveal if these new entries can carve out a place amidst the formidable competition, or if they will fall short of expectations in an increasingly crowded cinematic marketplace.