Jerusalem, Israel – Following the tragic death of Iran’s president in a helicopter crash, questions arise about the future of Iran’s ruling system and its policies. While the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds significant power, the late Ebrahim Raisi was considered a probable successor. With Raisi out of the picture, speculation shifts toward the potential of Khamenei’s son inheriting the leadership role.
Iran’s government structure features regular elections for president and parliament, although the supreme leader retains ultimate authority over major decisions and armed forces. The Guardian Council, under the supreme leader’s influence, vets candidates for key positions, ensuring alignment with Islamic law as interpreted by the ruling clerics.
Raisi, a hard-liner with close ties to Khamenei, assumed the presidency in 2021 through a highly controlled election process. His sudden demise led Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to step in temporarily, pending new elections within 50 days. The upcoming vote is likely to uphold the existing regime’s principles and practices, maintaining a status quo marked by Islamic governance and regional assertiveness.
Discussions on succession in Iran hint at potential shifts in leadership dynamics, particularly considering the imminent replacement of the aging Supreme Leader. The Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting the next supreme leader, faces the challenge of navigating a transition period that could mark only the second change in leadership since the 1979 revolution.
If Khamenei’s son assumes power, the move could ignite controversy within Iran, drawing criticism from both opponents of clerical rule and loyalists wary of deviating from Islamic principles. The nation’s economic challenges, compounded by Western sanctions, and social restrictions, exemplified by the strict enforcement of Islamic laws under Raisi, have stirred unrest among various segments of Iranian society.
As Iran grapples with internal tensions and international pressure, the death of Raisi introduces uncertainty into the future leadership landscape. The transition to a new supreme leader, whether through the rise of Khamenei’s son or another figure, may spark further upheaval and test the resilience of the Islamic Republic amid evolving domestic and global challenges.