Turnout Surge Could Propel Masoud Pezeshkian to Victory in Iran’s Presidential Run-off

Tehran, Iran – A high-stakes run-off election looms in Iran following a snap presidential election that saw reformist-backed Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili leading the pack but falling short of a majority. The latest election recorded a historic low turnout as only 40 percent of the over 61 million eligible Iranian voters cast their ballots, marking the lowest participation rate in presidential elections since the 1979 revolution.

In the final count, moderate candidate Pezeshkian garnered over 10.4 million votes out of more than 24.5 million ballots counted, closely followed by former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili with 9.4 million votes. With conservative Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and conservative Islamic leader Mostafa Pourmohammadi ousted from the race, the focus now shifts to the upcoming run-off between Pezeshkian and Jalili.

The dwindling voter turnout has sparked concerns among analysts, with many attributing the apathy to widespread disillusionment following deadly nationwide protests in 2022-23 and ongoing economic challenges fueled by mismanagement and sanctions. The failure of reformist camp to mobilize its traditional supporters also played a role in the low participation rate, according to Iranian foreign policy expert Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh.

As Iran braces for the second round of the election, scheduled for July 5, both candidates are intensifying their campaigns, with Pezeshkian promising to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and bridge the gap between the people and the establishment. On the other hand, Jalili pledges to lower inflation, boost economic growth, and take a tough stance against the West and its allies.

The outcome of the run-off is eagerly anticipated, as a higher turnout is expected to clarify the choice between the opposing ideologies represented by Pezeshkian and Jalili. Pezeshkian, backed by prominent figures from the centrist and reformist camps, is positioning himself as a moderate alternative to address the country’s challenges and herald change, while Jalili is advocating for a firmer stance against external pressures and internal corruption.

With security concerns looming, an attack in southern Sistan-Baluchestan province claimed the lives of two security forces after an assault on their vehicle transporting ballot boxes. The incident serves as a grim reminder of the tensions surrounding the electoral process and the high stakes involved in shaping Iran’s political landscape.

As the nation gears up for the decisive run-off, the political landscape remains volatile, with implications for both domestic policies and international relations. The outcome of the election could have far-reaching consequences, influencing Iran’s stance on key issues such as the nuclear deal, economic reform, and regional stability.