Cleveland, Ohio – As the NBA playoffs approach, basketball fans are eagerly anticipating the possibility of upsets akin to last year’s surprising matchups. In 2023, the first round saw four upsets based on seeding, the highest number since the current 16-team format was established in 1984. This trend has sparked speculation about which teams might defy expectations this year.
The unpredictability of last season was a departure from the norm, as there were no seeding upsets in 2022 and only two in the previous three years. However, factors that led to the suspenseful first round last year could once again come into play.
In the Eastern Conference, the standings are tight beneath the top-seeded Boston Celtics, setting the stage for closely contested first-round matchups. Teams in the East are separated by no more than three games, creating opportunities for potential upsets.
In the Western Conference, the matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and LA Clippers promises to be closely contested, with only one game separating the two teams. Additionally, the Phoenix Suns, seeded sixth, are favored over the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves due to their star power and playoff experience.
To predict potential upsets in this year’s playoffs, a model based on three key factors has been developed – regular-season performance (measured by net rating), roster quality (projected using the SCHOENE system), and pre-playoffs title odds at ESPN BET. This model will be used to assess the likelihood of surprises in the early rounds.
As fans gear up for the NBA playoffs, the stage is set for thrilling matchups and potential upsets that could redefine the postseason landscape. With teams hungry to make their mark and surprise the league, basketball enthusiasts are in for an exciting ride as the drama unfolds on the court.