New York – After a disappointing winter last year, snow lovers had high hopes for the current winter to make up for it. However, with only 2.3 inches of snow recorded so far, this winter has not lived up to expectations. Mild temperatures have once again prevailed, leading to more rain than snow.
Every day this month has experienced above-average temperatures, with the warmth expected to continue through the weekend. Despite the mild pattern, the likelihood of a snowstorm next week is increasing as a dip in the jet stream brings colder air into the region.
As the storm system works its way through the area, rain is expected to change over to snow with potential for significant accumulation. Forecast models are showing agreement in predicting plowable snow, even in coastal areas.
This type of heavy, wet snow, often referred to as “heart attack snow,” can pose dangers, especially to individuals with underlying health conditions. Additionally, strong winds may lead to power outages, and coastal flooding may be a concern.
The lack of snowfall this February is especially significant, as it is typically the snowiest month of the year. Many local cities and towns are running double-digit deficits for the season, with an average of 10 inches of snow falling in a typical February.
Looking back on historical snowstorms, the region has seen some of the greatest snowfalls in February, but achieving snow accumulation in recent years has been challenging. The upcoming storm may finally break the pattern, according to climatology and forecast models.
Beyond the potential for significant snowfall, the storm is expected to impact various regions with rain, mixed precipitation, and strong winds. Coastal flooding and moderate to high surf may also be a concern.
In conclusion, the stage is set for an impactful winter storm, but the bigger question remains: will Mother Nature cooperate this time?
Jersey Shore and Central New Jersey can expect rain, changing to snow with wind gusts up to 40 mph, while Long Island will see mixed precipitation, eventually changing to snow with similar wind conditions. New York City can expect a mix of rain and snow with wind gusts up to 35 mph, and the Hudson Valley and Northern New Jersey will likely see the highest snow totals with less mixing.
Coastal Connecticut will experience a mix of rain, wintry mix, and snow with wind gusts up to 40 mph. The potential for moderate coastal flooding remains a concern in several areas.