Miami, Florida – Meteorologists are predicting an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024. Experts from the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project have released a 44-page report forecasting a heightened probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
Compared to the average from 1991-2020, the 2024 season is expected to see a significant increase in activity with predictions of 23 named storms and 115 named storm days. This marks a substantial rise from previous years with an average of 14.4 storm days and 69.4 named storm days.
The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October. Experts note that hurricane activity tends to peak in mid-September, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Warm sea surface temperatures, paired with a warm tropical Atlantic and La Niña conditions, are setting the stage for an exceptionally active period. La Niña conditions, expected to arrive later this summer, are projected to decrease vertical wind shear and create more favorable conditions for hurricane formation.
Researchers estimate a well-above-average probability of major hurricane landfall in the United States and Caribbean, with some areas experiencing an increase of over 10% to nearly 20%. The likelihood of a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coastline has increased to 62%, up from the historical average prediction of 43%.
Along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability of a major hurricane landfall has risen to 34% from an average of 21% from 1880-2020. Similarly, the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle are facing an increased likelihood of 42%, up from the previous average of 27%.
While seasonal forecast predictions are based on statistical and dynamical models, researchers caution that these models can be unreliable in some years. The upcoming 2024 hurricane season follows a record-breaking 2023, which was globally the warmest year on record, leading to heightened water temperatures and increased hurricane activity.
As communities prepare for the potentially devastating effects of an active hurricane season, experts urge residents to stay informed, have emergency plans in place, and heed any warnings or evacuation orders issued by authorities. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, and proactive measures can make a significant difference in ensuring safety and resilience in the face of severe weather events.